NEW: Pepperspectives Grocery Index

Will Trump Actually Lower the Price of Eggs?

So….Trump focused intensely on grocery prices in the recent campaign.

Throughout, Trump promised to bring down the price of eggs and other grocery items. As the Washington Post reported:

“In August at his club in Bedminster, New Jersey, Trump stood near a table of produce such as milk, eggs, cereal and coffee and attributed the price hikes to Harris.”

And at one rally, Trump told the crowd, “From the day I take the oath of office, we’ll rapidly drive prices down and make America affordable again.” He vowed: “Prices will come down. You just watch. They’ll come down fast.”

When asked why he won the election by NBC’s Kristen Welker, here was his answer: “Very simple word, groceries. Like almost -- you know, who uses the word? I started using the word -- the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time, and I won an election based on that. We're going to bring those prices way down."

There’s only one problem with all these promises—most economists agree that Trump’s policies will be inflationary.

And there’s a second problem — Trump always lies.

So, as part of my effort to add a contemporaneous account of this new Trump era, I am adding a feature to account for these problems.

I call it my Pepperspectives Grocery Index: 30 standard items. Eggs, of course. Milk. Bread. Some cereal and soda. Ice cream. And a nice assortment of fruits and vegetables.

At my local grocery store (a Kroger’s).

Here are a few examples:

So I’ve taken various unit prices of 30 such items and added them up.

Here’s a chart of them:

The current index—the week before Trump’s inauguration—stands at the number:

$118.39.

If/when Trump goes on to implement his tariffs and mass deportation policies, we’ll see how these prices are impacted. I’ll provide a quarterly report or so.

Together, we can see if Trump fulfills a promise he himself said was a cornerstone of his campaign.

Stay tuned.

Day 46 — January 15, 2025

As confirmation hearings continued for Trump’s cabinet nominees, Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi refused to say that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election. She also ducked other questions, from her willingness to prosecute Trump’s “enemies” or stand up to illegal orders.

As economist Anders Aslund posted: “The first hearings with Hegseth, Rubio & Bond have clarified that nobody dares to contradict Trump on any point, while they dare to lie enormously.”