Learn the Lesson: Assume the Worst

Time to End Nine Years of Making the Same Mistake re Trump

One of the most consistent and self-defeating patterns of the past nine years is that—in the moment and long-term—politicians/foes in both parties, the media, the DOJ, courts and others all fail to take the threat from Trump as seriously as they should.

They assume he’ll go away.

Or stop at some point.

Or that there are some things he won’t do to advance his cause or protect himself, because no one else would do those things.

Usually, it’s been this misjudgment of him that has led to enormous mistakes:

I believe it’s why some didn’t vote for impeachment.

Or start investigating him immediately after Jan. 6 happened. They thought he’d go away, because that’s what all other presidents who lost re-election would do. So why impeach or investigate?

It’s why some support him even when they know how awful he is. They think that’ll put them in a good place in the long run, without seeing that no matter what you do, he’ll turn on you when he wants or needs to. Ask Frank LaRose or Jane Timken about that. Or Pence. Or all the people convicted of a crime in his service.

It’s why the media still today walks into interviews and debates wholly unprepared for what happens—still not believing that he is willing to lie any time he has to, for as long as he has to, spewing lies that are pure fantasies if they will help him.

It’s why he gets away with illegality again and again, because courts apply rules to him assuming he’ll follow the conventional course of a typical white collar criminal defendant, as opposed to a career conman, fraudster and serial liar.

It’s why people aren’t prepared for face-to-face confrontations with him—not ready for the reality that he won’t only lie on the traditional things dishonest politicians lie about—but that the lies will be ridiculously false, next level propaganda.

Like the fantasy that Nancy Pelosi was to blame for January 6.

Or the propaganda that he saved us from COVID and Biden is to blame for it.

(If you know he will lie like that, you don’t agree not to have fact checking in a debate, and no responsible media would say in advance they didn’t plan to fact check because that would be an open invitation to a serial and unflinching propagandist to walk in fully planning to lie whenever it suits him, assured he won’t be interrupted, and that a truth-telling opponent will be put in an impossible position. Which means he wins before it even starts.)

Folks often fail to see that he won’t shy away from the most inhumane and inappropriate calculations to get ahead.

Like using a detained journalist or grieving families as political props if it suits him.

Or showing up to a 2020 debate, at the height of fears of COVID, knowing he had COVID, dodging the test, and perfectly happy (or worse) to risk infecting his opponent and his family.

If you do things that awful and inhumane, you’ll pretty much do anything.

But people still think he won’t. And are still surprised when he does. And he wins because of it.

This also means they don’t believe his darkest words and promises.

Must just be talk, they say. Absurd. Won’t happen.

But for him, his worst words build a mandate to make them reality. Like the wall. Or the Muslim ban. Or all the the things he’s saying now—like no vaccines in schools.

He’ll do it, and say everyone knew because he told us.

They also underestimate how afraid Trump clearly is.

The truth is, he knows better than anyone what he’s done, and that he could spend years in jail for it all.

They don’t see that he projects that others will do to him what he would do to them, which makes him fear even more.

And because they don’t see that personal fear, it means they underestimate how far he will go to protect himself from it. And the first step in protecting himself from those fears is returning to power.

Remember HIS mindset—as a criminal on the run, desperate to avoid accountability, knowing the only sure way to avoid it is to become president again. Someone in that frame will do anything:

That’s why he tells Mike Johnson not to do an immigration deal.

That’s why he uses a detained reporter as a pawn.

That’s why he openly pushes for immunity—because he believes he needs it.

And that fear and mindset will drive whatever else he’s cooking up for the election that we don’t know about.

Once you realize how afraid he is of losing the election, which to him means loss of freedom and wealth, his worst actions aren’t at all surprising.

They should be expected.

So the 9-year lesson is clear.

Assume the worst. Then assume worse than that.

Worse lies. Worse crimes. Worse corruption. Worse behavior. More fear and paranoia. More willingness to use dark and disturbing tactics

Assume going in: no filters. No brakes.

Do not assume he will respond as others would. (Ie. he lost the presidency badly, so he surely won’t run again).

And only with that worst, worst case scenario in mind, plan accordingly.

Act accordingly.

Plan for the lies. To come rapid fire. Your strategy and agreed-to conditions should account for that.

Assume the defiance of the court order is coming. Issue rulings accordingly.

Know that Trump sees any moment where he doesn’t face accountability NOT as relief (again, he knows what he did wrong), but as an invitation to go further next time. Which he always does. So impose accountability knowing that.

Know that he is deathly afraid that his crimes and corruption will catch up to him. That he’s afraid people will do to him what he would do.

And that fear drives so much of the worst that he does.

It’s the main reason he did what he did on January 6. Fear of what would come if he lost power. (My guess is he’s surprised the past four years have been so docile).

It’s why he’s now running. Fear of what will happen to HIM if he’s not in power.

Know that cozying up to him will earn you ZERO loyalty from him. The moment you do anything against his wishes, or that your presence stands against his wishes, it’s over. Just ask Pence.

Know that opposing him, but doing so silently (like so many of his former cabinet members), is another win for HIM. He sees your silence and declares another victory. Someone who knows just how bad he is but is too afraid to say it.

And know that he will do the worst of what he says.

If he’s said it, it’s on the table. Once he says it, he’s off and running on claiming it as a mandate.

Worse, know that he is politically attuned enough NOT to say all he plans to do. So his words are just the start.

So…Stand Up

And know that the one thing he’s not used to is people actually catching onto all this. And acting on it.

He dominates because being worse than expected always catches people off guard. So they hold back. They don’t do what they would do if they did assume the worst.

If all who opposed him together began to assume the worst and act accordingly—planning for it, gaming it out, standing up to HIM, going on offense knowing all this—he loses.

At the moment it happens, and longer if it keeps happening.

Examples?

Nancy Pelosi standing up at that meeting…

…and asking Trump, to his face, why do “all roads lead to Putin?” (Then posting this photo on her Twitter account after he released it, thinking it made her look bad.)

She owned him. That knocked him back.

Or the interview by Jonathan Swan, who was prepared for every lie and asked follow up question after follow up question, interrupting Trump as much as Trump interrupts others:

Trump: "You know, there are those that say you can test too much, you do know that."

Swan: "Who says that?"

Trump: "Oh, just read the manuals. Read the books."

Swan: "Manuals? What manuals?"

Trump couldn’t handle it.

Do THAT!

Everyone. Every time. For now on.

He can’t handle it. It exposes him.

Five Months

We have 5 months to end this nightmare.

The nine-year pattern is clear.

Figure it out.

Assume the worst. Plan accordingly. Act accordingly.

No more mistakes. Our nation and democracy can’t afford them.