When I went on Chris Hayes last night, the numbers were just coming in, but my strong sense was that Trump had generated enough of a late surge for Bernie Moreno that he would win.
It became clear about an hour after the above interview that that was correct. And Moreno’s sizable election-day advantage—fueled by that surge—ultimately led to a decisive, double-digit win.
What does this mean for Ohio, and for the Fall?
A lot!
1. The Ohio GOP IS Now Trump’s GOP
As I explained in last night’s interview, and in a column I wrote for MSNBC.com, Moreno is now fully occupying the Trump/JD Vance lane of the Ohio GOP. And his win last night is the clearest sign yet that that the Trump wing has now fully taken over the Ohio Republican Party.
This is a seismic shift.
Over the past several decades, the establishment GOP wing had consistently held off challengers from the right: in 2010, the establishment brushed away primary challenges from Tea Party upstarts; in 2016, Kasich beat Trump in the Ohio presidential primary; in 2018, DeWine won the Governor’s primary.
Vance’s narrow 2022 primary win on the power of Trump’s endorsement was the first major primary that went the other way. And Moreno’s bigger win last night dealt perhaps the knock-out blow to the old, establishment Ohio GOP.
You couldn’t miss the symbolism of the ominous Trump rally in Dayton pitted against the late effort by establishment figures like DeWine and Portman (who endorsed Vance two years ago) to boost Dolan. Nor the fact that that establishment effort didn’t seem to help—and maybe even backfired, given the final margin.
In one of his final campaign rallies, Moreno even asked the crowd if they preferred the GOP of DeWine and Portman or the GOP of JD Vance and Trump. The crowd cheered for Vance, just as GOP voters decisively opted for Vance/Moreno last night.
The sad irony is that actions by the slow-footed and weak-kneed GOP establishment (signing off on gerrymandering for two straight decades, endorsements like Portman’s of Vance, failure to stand up to Trump—Kasich being an exception) are what led to its own demise, and the Trump takeover. But that’s a topic for another day.
2. The Trump/Vance Lane Fared Far Worse in 2022
Ironically, in general elections, that Trump/Vance lane has done decisively worse than the more establishment lane it just toppled.
How can I say that? We have a perfect comparison from just two years ago.
As I explained to Chris Hayes, Governor DeWine ran for reelection in 2022 as the traditional establishment Republican. His image was largely as the leader who had acted responsibly during COVID. He even scrubbed his campaign website of references to his anti-abortion views after Dobbs.
And….he won going away. A 25-point blow-out.
Appearing on the same ballot, JD Vance did the opposite. Like Moreno, he was all in on the Trump lane, which got him through the primary, and then he doubled down for the rest of the campaign. And while he beat Tim Ryan in a year where no Republican was going to lose (Democratic turnout was anemic), Vance only won by 6 points(!).
That’s right—while DeWine won by 25 points, and all other Republican candidates won by margins in the teens or 20s, Vance only won by 6. That’s a disastrous drop-off from the rest of the ticket.
Which means that last night, Republican voters eagerly embraced the very type of candidate who fares far worse with Ohio general election voters.
3. The Fall Campaign: Risk and Opportunity
Don’t get me wrong.
Moreno is a dangerous and high-risk candidate for Ohio, and the nation. Like Vance (R-Trump), he threatens to be a second Senator from Ohio more eager to serve Trump than to serve the people of Ohio. Like Vance, he also appears to be someone who will say and do anything to gain power, including altering his own views entirely. Just look at his past stances on a wide variety of issues, not to mention the highly critical comments he made about Trump throughout 2016. He actually said back then that if Trump were the GOP nominee, that is “not a party I want to be part of.”
And versus 2012 and 2018, 2024 clearly will be Sherrod’s toughest reelection campaign.
But, Moreno’s win also opens up opportunity:
While Trump is clearly the favorite to win Ohio, he is unlikely to win it by the blowout margins DeWine and others won by in 2022. Remember, he won in 2016 and 2020 by 8 points. That narrower margin matters.
As hard as Tim Ryan ran two years ago, Sherrod starts with a far stronger statewide brand than Tim did. And unlike Vance, in 2018, Brown overperformed our very strong field of statewide Democrats by 10 points.
Moreno looks to be a weaker candidate than Vance was entering the fall election. Sherrod’s campaigns have been incredible effective at exploiting opponents’ weaknesses—just ask private citizens Josh Mandel and Jim Renacci.
All this spells opportunity for Sherrod to win again, on several key conditions:
President Biden, Vice President Harris and the national campaign must wage a robust campaign here to keep things as close as possible at the top, largely by inspiring a Presidential-year turnout among Democrats.
Democrats and Sherrod also have work to do to inspire Ohio Democrats to turn out in far greater numbers than they did in 2022. It helps that more Democrats are competing up and down the ballot, and across Ohio, than they were in either 2020 or 2022.
Sherrod will have to make inroads with independents and some of those establishment Republicans who have been tossed aside (and explicitly rejected by Moreno, Vance and Trump) by Ohio’s new Trump GOP.
Bottom line (as I wrote in that MSNBC column): “[I]f Vance’s 2022 underperformance is any indication, Moreno’s win just made Brown’s path to victory a little easier, especially if some of the bad blood from the GOP primary carries over into the general. And once again, Trump looks to have hand-picked a candidate who makes Democrats’ odds of a Senate majority just a little bit brighter.”
BREAKING: Last Night in Ohio…