Analysis: The OH-06 Shocker

What Happened….What It Means

I sensed it from the first phone call.

An experienced activist in Columbiana County (not far from Youngstown) called me. Our conversation went something like this: “you’ve got to help this candidate running for the Ohio 6th special election! He’s firing up people all over the district but no one seems to be helping him. He doesn’t even have a campaign manager, but people are so excited about him. He’s got a great story and he really has energy. Can you help him?”

I had seen the candidate’s name—Michael Kripchak—a few times on social media. He was running to replace Bill Johnson, the election denier who, shamefully, had been named to run Youngstown State University. And it’s a district I’ve always been fascinated with—so fascinated it’s the setting of my first book, “The People’s House,” as the center of a national scandal. I even drew a diagram of it (slightly different makeup) with my own hands, which appears early in the book:

So I took a closer look at Michael Kripchak, and she was right. He had a great story—from Youngstown (class co-valedictorian), Air Force Academy graduate (physics major) and veteran, quantum computing experience, a later Master’s in interactive telecommunications, and then an entrepreneur, returning home to Youngstown along the way. Whoa!

So I called Michael up, talked to him, liked what I heard, and invited him to join my next Blue Ohio call (we have monthly calls and we often feature candidates).

And on that call—from the passenger seat of a car because he was on the road—he knocked it out of the park. I could see then why that activist was excited. And others too.

Weeks later, I looked forward to an evening in Washington County (Marietta) where Michael and I were both scheduled to speak.

There, I saw more good signs. Some women (retired teachers) at the table where I sat down to eat had flyers about the event they were hosting for Michael a week later. And they were excited about it.

Plus, Michael now had a campaign manager. But not just any manager—his manager was the county chair from a long-time and well-known political family in Jefferson County. This chair was so inspired by Michael he’d taken the reins to help him run up and down the Sixth. And he filled me in on their plan to target voters in what they knew would be a low-turnout special election.

And then Michael got up to speak…but the podium everyone else had used never saw him. He paced back and forth, up and down the aisle that bisected the crowd of 100+, giving a rip-roaring speech that captivated the audience. It had fire, but also substance—breadth and depth. Followed by a long-standing ovation and a buzz in the crowd.

I drove home—impressed!

Not long after that, some of America’s most effective activists from beyond Ohio—friends in groups like Postcards To Voters who help candidates from across the country—also brought up Michael’s name. They’d had him on a Zoom call, loved his energy, and had written postcards for him ever since—reminding voters to show up in a June election and vote for him.

Finally, I had Michael on one more Blue Ohio call four days before the election. It was again clear how hard he was working in a district where he was given absolutely no change of doing well. That weekend, fired up about his race, I sent a tweet thread asking folks to help him. It made the rounds—more excitement.

So…

Election Results

…going into Tuesday night, knowing he was drastically outspent in a Trump +29 district, did I think Michael Kripchak would overperform that wide chasm? Which is what happened:

Answer: You bet I did!

Because even with little financial support, I saw all the makings of what’s led to two years of overpeformance by Democrats in election after election: a passionate and authentic candidate, a base of fired-up volunteers, smart on-the-ground tactics, and even some strategic help from afar.

And let’s look at how all of that added up on Tuesday.

A Trump +29 district turned into this 👇

Here’s how the map looked:

But don’t let those reds and blues fool you. Because some of those red counties marked the biggest stories of the night. (And the blue needs to be better).

Let’s start in Washington County, the site of that high-energy dinner. There are some fired up Democrats in the county, and some Democrats in local office (and one county office). But make no mistake—this is usually a heavily Republican County:

In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Washington County: 69%-29%.

Ohio Governor DeWine was reelected there 73%-24%.

How did Michael Kripchak do? He lost 52.7%-47.3%! Now that is an overpeformance!

Now let’s look at Belmont County—not far up the river:

Trump won there 71%-27%; DeWine, 74%-24%.

Kripchak? Lost 58-42.

In Monroe County, where Trump (75-22) and DeWine (76-20) dominated.

Kripchak lost 60-40:

Jefferson County: Trump (68-30) and DeWine (73-25) won easy. Kripchak lost 57-43.

I won’t go through them all. (Some counties on the map are only partial areas, so the comparisons are tougher). But the pattern could not be more clear: dramatic overperformance in these red areas. Leading to a far closer outcome overall.

Sadly, the mild disappointment came in the blue county at the top of the district: Mahoning, which includes Youngstown. Now this is a county that voted for Trump (50-48) and DeWine (64-34) as well.

But this is also a county that not long ago was traditionally and reliably blue. So while Kripchak won here by a sliver, overperforming Biden and Whaley…

…this was far too narrow to make up for the other counties. If Kripchak were going to win the district outright, it would have to be based on a large margin here. And that didn’t happen.

What It All Means

A National Pattern

Yes, this was a special election. Low turnout. National analysts are quick to remind us of that: “don’t over-read it,” they warn us. And to a degree, of course, they’re right. Don’t over-read a single special election.

But how about two special elections, or four, or six, or eight? A pattern that’s played out in blue states and red states? In purple ones too? In small districts and entire states?

Because the pattern going back to August 2022 could not be more clear. Democratic candidates and causes are consistently and dramatically overperforming both expectations and polls in special election after special election.

Examples? So many.

We saw it in a statewide special election in August ‘22 in Kansas, and in August ‘23 in Ohio. While not a special, I’ll throw in the April ‘23 Supreme Court race in Wisconsin for good measure.

Then look at a long series of statehouse special elections in recent years—from Pennsylvania (flipping a GOP seat in Sept. 2023), to New Hampshire (flipping a GOP seat in Jan ‘24), to Alabama (a flip in a Trump district following that terrible IVF decision), to Michigan (two special election wins in April ‘24).

And of course, Tom Suozzi’s decisive win to replace the ousted George Santos.

To Tuesday’s dramatic overperformance in OH-06.

It’s been the same pattern. A compelling candidate. High energy among Democratic activists (both on the ground and from afar) who see the stakes and are ready to work. A backdrop of GOP extremism following Dobbs, and what looks like a consistent backlash to that extremism.

Does this tell us anything about November ‘24?

I’ll first answer it this way. No one thought this differential in base energy meant much going into November ‘22 (although some were telling us it did, like Simon Rosenberg). Democrats, largely because it was a mid-term where we controlled the White House, were expected to lose big. Instead, we saw similar overperformance all over the country—flipping statehouses (Michigan, Pennsylvania), defeating election deniers all over, holding the Senate, minimizing losses in the House.

Then the same pattern continued in November ‘23: Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania.

Will it continue?

I wouldn’t assume it. Nor would I take it for granted. Of course it will be a much bigger electorate that shows up.

Instead, I’d make it so. Repeat the overperformance, which we have every power to do.

And knowing how close margins may be in some states, I’d rather be on the side whose activists have worked harder, whose voters have been more energized, and whose results have overperformed districts, expectations, and even polls for two years.

Wouldn't you?

Bottom line: don’t let anyone dismiss the importance of this special election winning streak. Be proud that you’ve helped make it happen, keep doing the things that made it happen (at all levels), and double down on all that heading into November ‘24—for candidates at the statehouse level, up to House races like Michael Kripchak’s, to statewide initiatives, up to the races for Senate and the Presidency. In Ohio, be sure to include the Ohio Supreme Court in your focus.

Do the same work that’s led to the overperformance. Do it so much that, like ‘22 and ‘23, we repeat the performances on Election Day!

And What About Ohio?

And what does the special election result mean for Ohio? What does it tell us?

Most importantly, it means momentum. I don’t say that as a prediction—it’s already happening.

Thanks to Michael Kripchak, in a district that has not seen a lot of Democratic hope or energy of late, you have an army of fired up volunteers like the activist who called me, like the women at that my table in Washington County, like that audience who rose to their feet, like all those who helped Michael campaign through last Tuesday.

They were fired up about a candidate who was working so hard, often alone (without them), but with major-league energy. And across the district, this week, Democrats looked up to see the margin in their counties far closer than they’ve been in years. Which confirmed the excitement they’d felt going in, and showed them that their hard work mattered. Showed them to keep going.

Just as Michael Kripchak himself has momentum, and is energized, and will only fight harder for the rest of the year. And he’s not resting on his laurels—as he told me when I called him this week: “I don’t feel like we overperformed. I think we underperformed. We need to win.” Boom!

Of course, November will be different.

Washington County will likely be more Republican. As will other counties.

But with Sherrod Brown at the top of the ticket, and a full coordinated campaign turning voters out, and Kripchak blasting away every day between now and then, Mahoning could well be (and needs to be) far more Democratic.

And beyond the Congressional race, if a new level of activism and optimism and strong messaging propels the margins in these red counties to be just halfway between Trump’s numbers and Kripchak’s—or even a third of the way—those reduced margins of loss likely translate into a statewide victory for Sherrod Brown. Or our Supreme Court races. Or the end of gerrymandering in Ohio.

So…don’t let anyone tell you these elections don’t matter.

Don’t let anyone tell you a single candidate, way outspent, firing up an entire red district largely on his own hard work, passion and energy doesn’t matter.

It’s yet another example of why it’s so important to run hard, everywhere. Always.

It tells us something important about the relative energy among the two sides even in a red district. It inspires us to build on that.

But more than that, in this part of Ohio, it starts something that was desperately needed. New energy. New hope. And actual, on-the-ground momentum.

And that early momentum is essential for so many reasons going forward.

Thank you Michael, your team, and all the activists who pitched in to shock the world Tuesday night.

It. Mattered.

You can help make sure Michael has even more support this time by giving HERE.