When rigged statehouses engage in voter suppression, the impact of the measures can often get lost amid legal battles and partisan rhetoric (or the fact that there’s almost no coverage at all)
But the math on that impact is clear as day. And brutal. Totaled up, it’s enough to shift outcomes of an entire state.
Just look at the voter suppression bill that passed the Ohio Senate and House last week, and now awaits the Governor’s signature—or veto.
There are numerous suppressive measures in it: further limitations on drop boxes (both number and hours of operation), a narrower window to request early ballots, and a ban on the Secretary of State sending out ballot request forms to voters. Those alone will impact thousands of voters.
But let’s get even more specific on a few others:
30,000. That’s the number of people who voted early, in person, the Monday before Election Day last month. Even more have done so on the Monday before presidential elections. These are voters who largely figure out late in the game that they are unable to vote on the Tuesday, so they show up and wait in line Monday. In the future, there simply will be no option for many such voters. Why? The Ohio bill eliminates that last day of voting outright.
200,000+. That’s the estimated number of Ohioans who live overseas. Think of them as a city between the size of Dayton and Toledo—a large potential voting bloc. (In close races, such as recent Georgia races, the overseas vote was larger than the margins of victory for Senator Warnock.) It’s already a challenge for these overseas Ohioans to vote, but it was just made more difficult because the new law reduces the grace period that votes mailed and postmarked before the election can arrive at an elections office after the election and be counted. That hits voters abroad the hardest.
30,000. That’s the number of Ohioans who serve in active duty military, the reserves or the national guard. At any time, these Ohioans could be stationed abroad—so they are also impacted by the new rules impacting overseas voters.
500,000-800,000(!). That’s the estimated number of Ohioans who do not currently have the photo ID (driver’s license or state ID card) that the bill on the Governor’s desk would for the first time require for voting in Ohio. (It would be the strictest photo ID law in the nation). Of this number, young voters, elderly voters and voters of color disproportionately lack these IDs. We know from other states that due to the logistics, cost and time required to get a photo ID, as well as voter confusion, a large number of these voters will simply not get the required ID, and simply won’t vote.
How many? In Wisconsin, it was estimated that 300,000 or so lacked the required photo ID at the time their law passed—a good deal less than the more strict Ohio law’s impact. And one study after the 2016 election estimated that Wisconsin turnout was reduced by as many as 200,000 votes due to that ID requirement—far greater than Donald Trump’s margin of victory there. A similar ratio in Ohio would be catastrophic.
To put these numbers in perspective, here are recent margins of victories in Ohio in high-profile statewide campaigns.
2012: Obama +160K
2018: DeWine +165k
2018: Sherrod +300k
2022: Vance +260k
You get the picture.
The number of voters impacted by this single bill isn’t some “at the margins” figure. The total adds up to huge numbers of voters potentially impacted, the voter ID number especially. In relatively competitive races and even turnout years, it’s enough to impact the outcome itself.
If this brutal math isn’t enough to convince you to call Governor DeWine, I don’t know what is.
Here are some numbers to call. Please ask him to veto this horrific bill:
Thank you.
