Trump Tanking at 100 Days

Plus, Calling All Lawyers--Support the Rule of Law

100 days in, and Trump’s numbers continue to tank—especially in recent weeks, and even on traditionally strong GOP issues such as the economy and immigration.

My friend Matt Robison and I discussed Trump’s low standing yesterday, analyzing a wide cross-section of polls and data:

You can watch our entire conversation at Matt’s newsletter HERE (Matt is new to Substack, always has a smart take on things, and will be a good follow).

Matt shared some helpful charts as we spoke (and provides citations in his video), but let me share a few of his charts here.

Here’s Trump’s overall approval rating:

Here are his numbers on the economy:

Trump on costs:

Trump on immigration:

* This one really stood out to me. And shows that even on an issue that has been one of Trump’s strengths, you can move the needle if you fight back hard, authentically and persuasively (see Sen. Van Hollen). Silence in the wake of what we’ve been watching would’ve likely kept Trump above water on immigration.

Trump on the issues, overall:

And here’s the generic Congressional ballot:

You’ll notice especially big movement in recent weeks on all of these. Matt and I speculate on that in our conversation, but it obviously needs to be analyzed and understood.

I also shared a warning: Americans have very short memories. So no one should rest on their laurels about any of these numbers. In fact, double down. Get on offense and stay on offense.

Calling All Lawyers: Affirm the Oath on Law Day

“I hereby swear that I will support the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of Ohio; and I will abide by the Ohio Rules of Professional Conduct...

I will conduct myself with dignity and civility and show respect toward judges, court staff, clients, fellow professionals and other persons.

I will honestly, faithfully, and competently discharge the duties of an attorney at law.”

Sometimes the world of politics can make things needlessy complicated.

But sometimes, it’s so damn simple. And we let that simplicity get clouded by chaos and partisanship and disinformation.

So a return to first principles can be useful.

And is certainly needed now.

Which is why I was so excited to learn about a national effort being organized by concerned lawyers for tomorrow, which is officially Law Day.

It’s called #reaffirmtheoath. And it’s happening all across the nation. Lawyers reaffirming the oath they took when they first became lawyers. It turns out, the words of your state’s oath provide a pretty clear guide for how lawyers should be reacting to this moment. Here are a few:

“I will support the Constitution of the United States and the Constitution of the State of Colorado; I will maintain the respect due to Courts and judicial officers; I will employ only such means as are consistent with truth and honor; I will treat all persons whom I encounter through my practice of law with fairness, courtesy, respect and honesty; I will use my knowledge of the law for the betterment of society and the improvement of the legal system; I will never reject, from any consideration personal to myself, the cause of the defenseless or oppressed; I will at all times faithfully and diligently adhere to the Colorado Rules of Professional Conduct.” (Colorado)

“I do solemnly (swear) (affirm) that I will at all times demean myself fairly and honorably as an attorney and practitioner at law; that I will bear true allegiance to the State of Maryland, and support the laws and Constitution thereof, and that I will bear true allegiance to the United States, and that I will support, protect and defend the Constitution, laws and government thereof as the supreme law of the land; any law, or ordinance of this or any state to the contrary notwithstanding.” (Maryland)

“I will in all other respects conduct myself personally and professionally in conformity with the high standards of conduct imposed upon members of the bar as conditions for the privilege to practice law in this State.” (Michigan)

Most oaths include some or all of these clauses. (Ohio’s was the first one I quoted).

If every current lawyer—including those who are judges, officeholders (including the VP), commentators and other participants in our struggle for democracy—were to abide by such words in their day-to-day words and actions, boy would we be in a better place.

So…tomorrow is a chance for all lawyers to remind ourselves what our deepest obligations are. To recommit to the rule of law and ethics and integrity, and fidelity to our Constitution.

#ReaffirmtheOath leaders are inviting all of us to do this together—at public events, online, in small groups, however you can. Thousands are already signed on, including some of the most high profile lawyers in the nation.

Here’s a LINK to a website providing the details on the effort—and a toolkit for how you can join other lawyers in doing this, or create your own group at your firm, your law school, or wherever you are.

So as Joyce White Vance wrote the other day—“We are a country of laws, not of men. Attorneys make a solemn promise that they will not lie or delay a matter (shout out to Trump’s lawyers) for profit or out of ill will….On Law Day this Thursday, we should all, either publicly or privately, reaffirm our commitment to the rule of law…”

Join us!

Day 159 — April 29, 2025

In a national interview, Donald Trump revealed just what a bubble he is in. (To put it nicely). And although he gets mocked for it, it should worry all of us.

It was almost two weeks ago that Trump displayed the photo of Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s hand with the letters MS-13 appearing to be on his knuckles. But the image was immediately debunked (by April 18-19) as a fake—the letters did not appear in any real photos of his hand, and were clearly added digitally.

But in the interview released yesterday, Trump was still under the illusion that the debunked photo was real. And he got angry when a journalist tried to set him straight.

Imagine what else is bouncing around that unhinged brain of his. And given how he responds, my guess is his top staff doesn't even bother to correct him. (And hadn’t on this).

A truly dangerous situation.