I didn’t want to jinx things, so I didn’t say it until after it was over.
But I gave a hint of what I hoped would happen in an interview last week with Salon, when they asked me and others what we made of the ups and downs of all the national polling of late.
My response was not to let the polls consume us:
The most consistent data point has been the overperformance of Democrats since the middle of 2022, largely due to a more energized turnout and the far-right careening into extremism.
From Kansas in August ’22 (the special election over abortion access), to November 2022 (not just federal races, but Democrats flipping several statehouses and election deniers losing Secretary of State and Governor races in numerous states), to the big victories in Ohio in August and November 2023, to the Virginia Statehouse in 2023, Democrats have built up a winning streak all across the country, and at multiple levels.
Heck, even Moms of Liberty candidates losing 70% of their races in 2023 was a part of this trend. Remember, these are the years where Democrats are supposed to be losing—because they are in the White House. Those statehouse slips defied a half-century of precedent.
These aren’t just polls; they are actual outcomes. And the consistency of these results tells us something is happening beneath the surface that is largely being lost as we ogle a faux-GOP primary and polls that are all over the map.
And…Tuesday kept that winning streak going, in a big way!
A special election victory in Pennsylvania kept that recently won statehouse majority in Democratic hands. And Tom Suozzi won going away in a seat the infamous George Santos had won by a decent margin in 2022.
What accounts for the winning streak?
Well, election wins are usually anchored by strong candidates running strong campaigns. And Tom Suozzi was a particularly strong candidate who ran a smart, aggressive campaign. For an informative podcast about what he did to win this unique district, listen to this conversation between Greg Sargent and the campaign’s prime pollster.
But believe me, I’ve seen good candidates do almost everything right and still not win.
So what else is happening that’s fueling this win streak. As I explained to Salon, two trends are aligning:
First, the extreme right is becoming more and more toxic to mainstream America. And in anything close to a competitive district or state, that’s costing Republicans elections. The GOP-run House’s antics of late cast an added spotlight on not just that toxic extremism, but also the dysfunction that inevitably results. And that’s something that Suozzi took advantage of in his closing messaging.
Second, on the positive side, a grassroots pro-democracy army continues to grow, and is SHOWING UP in these races. Not just as voters, but as activists, relentlessly using their energy and passion to spark turnout in races near and far from where they actually live. That growing army helped win a Wisconsin Supreme Court race last April (above expectations). It helped Ohio win twice last year. It helped flip Virginia.
And it helped again Tuesday.
I saw it up close in the New York race:
Here I am (four squares over, top row) a few weeks ago chatting with Tom Suozzi (first square, top row) and activists from Markers for Democracy, as they wrote postcards on his behalf to voters across his district. They did this every Sunday (#SundaysforSuozzi) for five weeks, just as they and so many other groups have written postcards and made phone calls and supported candidates for important efforts all over the country for years now. (A lot of Markers members are based in New York, so I told them it was fitting that this time, they got to apply their energy to a pivotal race in their own backyard.)
And long before the race took shape—long before Santos was expelled—another group of activists began to rally to oust him:
Members of this group put in the work tirelessly long ago, building, building, building….one person at a time. After they achieved their initial goal of ousting Santos, they then transitioned their efforts into working to win the election to replace him.
So, when you see over-performances like we saw Tuesday, with a wider margin than any poll predicted, based on a more spirited turnout on one side than the other—you can bet that an important portion of that came from the grassroots energy and outreach emanating from efforts like Markers, Concerned Citizens of NY-03 and many more.
And that’s what I was referring to above—when I told Salon—“the consistency of these results tells us something is happening beneath the surface that is largely being lost as we ogle a faux-GOP primary and polls that are all over the map..”
Amazing work all around! Thanks to all who made it happen.
So…what next?
2024 looks so fraught with risk and uncertainty. Crazy polls. Bizarre and unpredictable moments. Frustrating news coverage.
It can overwhelm, and it can paralyze.
But as I told Salon when they asked me what I saw happening in 2024, the last thing we should do is let all the uncertainty paralyze us. Instead, we need to keep doing—indeed, do even more of—the work that has fueled this winning streak to begin with.
My full answer:
“I don’t think anyone knows what will happen. This is indeed an unprecedented time—a battle royale for democracy at all levels. No one who cares about democracy should take it—or anything—for granted. They should count on Trump and anti-democracy forces in states to have studied where they fell short in 2020 and 2022, learning from it, and yes, doing anything to win beyond even what they’ve done before.
But they should also take note of the winning streak I described above. It is real, and it defies history. And it's a result of tireless work by grassroots activists and candidates at all levels, and a realization by a broad swath of voters that the current far right is too extreme for America and their community. Similar, tireless work and effective messaging will be needed to protect democracy in 2024.”
Tuesday’s big wins reaffirmed that lesson.
We can do this!
I'm a bit of a data nerd, so after the win in NY-03 I went back to check the 5 NY seats that flipped in 2022. I was very surprised to see that Santos had won in 2022 by the the biggest margin of the five. NY-03 was 53.7 v. 46.2; NY-04 was 51.8 v 48.2; NY-17 was 50.3 v 49.7; NY-19 was 50.8 v 49.2; and NY-22 was 50.5 v 49.5. It won't take much of a blue wave to sink the GOP candidates in at least 3 of those other 4 seats.
From my perspective these guys are frauds as much as Santos was - albeit on a much less grandiose scale ;-). They campaigned as moderates, but then unanimously voted for MAGA Mike Johnson as speaker and are now acting as loyal MAGA foot soldiers.
As a NC resident most of my focus going forward is going to be flipping NC for Biden and electing as many Dems as possible, but I can always squeeze in a few postcards to help preserve democracy in other places!
FYI, Activate America (www.activateamerica.vote) has recently added campaigns for Ohio (early voting) and PA (Vote by Mail).
On behalf of the grassroots movement, thank you, thank you, thank you for your generous support of our efforts. Your confidence in us and the confidence your colleagues have in us, helps to keep us going even when our efforts are largely ignored by the press. You would think with all the D wins in so many diverse races, they would be able to identify the common denominator. Looking forward to our continued partnership in Saving our Democracy ( one postcard at a time).