The GOP's "Caravan" Strategy

We've Seen This Before -- and It's All About Turnout

The decision by most Washington D.C. Republicans to do nothing about the immigration issue that they spend so much time decrying is….

…entirely consistent with their messaging strategy going back years.

It’s something that many of them would do even if Trump weren’t demanding it of them for his campaign’s sake.

And it all goes back to the core dilemma they face: how to win elections even though they represent a minority—sometimes even a small minority—on most of their issues and stances.

I dedicate a number of pages in my book “Saving Democracy” to this topic, and their strategy.

Hint: it’s about enraging their base, and stoking turnout:

And they know that any progress made by Joe Biden—or even by a bipartisan coalition—would diminish that hoped-for rage, and thus diminish turnout.

What they are doing now repeats their playbook from 2018, when late in the fall they sparked an uproar over a “caravan” heading toward the border. With little to excite their voters, the story dominated the airwaves late in that election. Of course, at the time they hyped the caravan, they were in charge of all branches of government in DC. In theory, at least, what they were trying to scare America about was all on their watch.

But that wasn't the point.

Stoking turnout was.

And it worked. Unexpected high turnout in red/rural areas of larger states saved them a number of seats they were in danger of losing otherwise. (Going into the weekend before the election, Mike DeWine’s own pollsters told him he would lose; DeSantis and Kemp were tied; etc.).

Of course the caravan coverage disappeared the day after the election ended. Mission accomplished.

Here is an excerpt explaining it all, and our opportunity to fight back:

Their Strategy, and the Dilemma of Asymmetric Messaging…