Yesterday, I shared the historic results that occurred at the state level around the country.
Well, there’s more to report.
First, it looks like Mark Finchem, perhaps the most extreme election denier running for Secretary of State anywhere, will LOSE his bid in Arizona! And overnight, the Nevada election denier fell behind the Democrat, and is below the rest of his ticket. The remaining votes to be counted look favorable.
Second, with Democrats securing their majorities in the Nevada statehouse, this will be the first midterm since 1934 where the party in power does not lose a single statehouse chamber in the country.
As I wrote yesterday, the state-level successes on Tuesday were not a coincidence. They were not happenstance. They were not dumb luck.
More than any other time in politics, I had a front-row seat to who was doing what, where—and I watched and participated in a number of efforts that I considered “best practices.” And, thank goodness, they worked.
There will be months to analyze, but amid the mix of successes and failures, let me share some critical lessons learned.
BIG PICTURE
1. Authentic candidates and strong campaigns matter. Especially at the top of the ticket. ‘Nuff said.
2. Messaging instincts matter.
With a few weeks left, I tweeted a long thread in response to what I saw as media shaming of Democratic candidates for talking too much about abortion. I argued that shifting only to an economic frame would be a gift to Republicans, who were desperate to change the topic away from Dobbs so they could get back to a typical mid-term message, where the party in power loses. (Look at McConnell trying to silence Lyndsey Graham; Republicans scrubbing their website of pro-life references). Dobbs, the attack on abortion access, was THE disrupting issue.
The candidates who never stopped talking about Dobbs and women’s freedom and abortion access—Gretchen Whitmer, John Fetterman, etc.—had big nights.
The Lesson: don’t let the other side or the media or even a poll or two bully you out of a winning frame, where you KNOW you are on the people’s side. Remember: THEY are the extremists, but don’t want you talking about that. With its horrible ramifications playing out in real time, Dobbs provided a tragic example of that. So like Whitmer, TALK ABOUT IT. Keep it front and center, and connect it to everyday lives. And don’t stop.
3. Thank you, Young Voters. Partly because of 2, young voters showed up more than in a typical mid-term, and the decisive margins in their voting may have just saved the day. We MUST build on that everywhere, every year.
4. Direct Democracy Works. Especially in gerrymandered states, going right to the people on core issues such as freedom, core rights such as abortion access, and pro-democracy reforms remains a promising path, as we saw Tuesday. The extreme legislatures know this, so be prepared to fight continued efforts to make direct democracy more difficult.
STATE-LEVEL WINS
1. Organizations and institutional focus REALLY matter — SCALE THEM UP
Over the course of the last year, largely in response to my book, I got to know a number of organizations well, and worked closely with them. Let me describe a few—their missions and how they execute:
The States Project is obsessed with the overlooked power of statehouses—power to do good when in the right hands, to do ill in the wrong hands. Like me, they spend every day trying to convince people to see this, and to help. And they specifically do it by encouraging groups of activists to form “Giving Circles,” and then to adopt states/statehouses where power can be gained. These are often folks in Blue States trying to help in Red States.
I joined dozens of “Giving Circle” calls over the last year, largely as a guest cheerleader to encourage their amazing work. I watched them vote to “adopt” states, then raise money for the strategic candidates in those states who had the chance of flipping seats, then volunteer in other ways. I got to meet some of the candidates they supported. I even met some incredible celebrities along the way who used their star power to inspire others.
Even before they said so on those calls, I knew that for those candidates (these are the candidates in politics who struggle to get their call returned versus Senate, Governor, Congressional candidates), the money coming from these “Giving Circles” was invaluable, and would go a lot further than candidates at those higher levels.
I got so excited about The States Project, when I talked to other groups or book clubs about my book, I would encourage them to create “Giving Circles.” Some did.
Well, what states did all these “Giving Circles” adopt?
Hmm. Try: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona.
Recognize them?
Those also are the states where Democrats flipped two statehouses, two state senates, and avoided a Republican super-majority. (We’re still waiting on Arizona.)
They also focused on states where Democrats needed to hold onto majorities—like Maine and Nevada. That too worked. Like I said at the top, for the first time in nearly a century, not a single statehouse was lost in a mid-term.
In other words, the States Project and their smart, strategic and powerful model knocked it out of the freaking park.
Now let me tell you about the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State — DASS.
Their obsession, all year, was keeping election deniers from taking over Secretary of State offices. Once I got to know their approach and their relentless focus, I was proud to start championing their cause at every turn, including raising dollars their way.
But I also was worried: election deniers were running everywhere, as part of a coordinated strategy. We’re talking in New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Nevada, Arizona. Batting .500 wasn’t good enough. Even a few losses could be catastrophic for democracy.
But DASS and their awesome team weren’t cowed by the need to achieve near perfection in swing states. They built a robust operation to support Secretary of State candidates, supported the pro-democracy candidates, and invested millions in exposing election deniers for who they were. Far more than ever before.
And guess what — they may run the table! Nevada is the only state that remains up in the air, but the election denier fell behind the Democrat over night. But in all other swing states, the election deniers look to have lost.
I also got to know other organizations, also relentlessly focused on state and local offices that shape democracy.
The DLCC—supporting legislative candidates in key states.
Sister District—encouraging activists to adopt “sister districts” to focus on and support.
Run for Something—recruiting recruits candidates to run at the state and local level.
Arena—which trains and embeds critical staff into these races.
I’ve known the NDRC for some time, led by my friend Eric Holder, who has been raising the alarms on gerrymandering in recent years.
The good news is, all these groups have formed in recent years to fight the statehouse battle that needs to be fought to save democracy. Many made major progress this cycle in the very states where we saw breakthroughs.
The bad news is, they are still far too small, and left far too much on the sideline versus other federal campaign work. Our challenge in the coming year is to scale all this activity up.
In fact, what these groups are doing must not be seen as “side” activity at all.
No, once you realize that the battle for democracy starts at the state level, you realize that the work of these groups is core mission work. We must treat them, expand them and support them accordingly.
4. Running EVERYWHERE matters.
Who had candidates running in every district?
Michigan.
Who had a historic night, at every level?
Michigan.
That’s not an accident. Running in every district, every year, means you’re knocking on doors in every district. Communicating to voters in every district. Holding extremism accountable in every district. Giving voters in every district a choice, a local face, and another reason to show up.
Studies back all this up. Funded candidates in every district lifts turnout.
Too many other states left dozens of seats uncontested. That included states such as Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Ohio etc. where major stakes were on the ballot. But millions of voters showed up to find uncontested races on their ballot. No choice at all—for a statehouse seat that impacts their lives and democracy in critical ways,.
It’s not easy to run everywhere. But that must be our goal.
It’s too much of an unforced error not to run everywhere. It’s a gift to extremism. They gerrymander to avoid competition for their extremism—don’t reward it by not running.
But to succeed in doing this, like Michigan, we must create an infrastructure that values running everywhere. And values the candidates who run everywhere.
That infrastructure doesn’t exist in most places.
In a coming newsletter, I’ll share one “best practice” that can do just that. It’s a long-term strategy and will take time to build.
We recently piloted it in Ohio (too late to recruit in this cycle), but it’s off to a great start.
5. Strong, professional STATE PARTIES matter.
Lots to say about this, but one theme in states doing well is that strong state parties with the continuity and robustness to organize and talk to voters on an ongoing basis really matter. There are lots of IEs and Superpacs out there, but that’s not enough. There are certain things that parties must do, and must do well. Without them, success is much tougher—with them, even in tough environments, success is achievable.
Two great examples of this are Michigan and Wisconsin, where very strong, full-time chairs leading robust organizations continue to get the job done.
Think of the ideal modern party as a highly professional non-profit, whose core mission is winning elections at all levels and supporting public servants in doing great public service once in office (also at all levels). Those states that have parties of this type—robust enough to do the job—are seeing success, and they are convincing donors that they are worth investing in. Parties operating under old models aren’t nearly as successful.
Much work to do here, but again, there are best practices to build from.
Lots more to say, but these are some initial best practices I wanted to share.
What can the Ohio Democratic Party learn from Cincinnati and Hamilton County? As someone who lives here, I see so many positive things happening under current leadership.
I'm also very disappointed that Ohio doesn't get more support from national organizations. With the right help, especially in the final months as Republican money was pouring into Vance's coffers, I think Ryan might have gotten over the top.
I’m joining a #RunForSomething Zoom call Dec 16 because I shower up to vote for my State Senator and it was a (R) uncontested seat due to gerrymandering and delaying maps so long that the DEMs couldn’t recruit in time. IDC, at this point, I’m considering sitting on a bench to be called up for any office that is uncontested just to contest! Winning would be great, perhaps, but more importantly, it is to give these folks some competition that they’ve never had. If the DEMs wanted to really cause necessary trouble in Ohio, they’d be talking to Estati who has demonstrated a real talent for stirring things up. Nothing scares him off and I’d sure like seeing him in the D camp for that reason alone.