Tuesday was a remarkable night.
Yes, some results are still coming in and will determine the House and Senate majority. But given that midterms usually punish the party in power, even a mixed result suggests that there is an “exhausted majority” recoiling from some combination of extremism, Dobbs, Trumpism and the attack on democracy.
We saw this in 2020—but to see it in a mid-term where the party in power is supposed to lose badly makes it far more clear.
Regardless, I wrote Laboratories of Autocracy to warn people that American politics is not simply a battle over high-profile federal elections, but a deeper battle for democracy itself—and that the battle involves institutions and political offices that too few pay attention to.
So like the book, let’s examine Tuesday through that democracy lens, with an eye on the offices that shape democracy itself:
FROM LABORATORIES OF AUTOCRACY TO LABORATORIES OF DEMOCRACY
In Laboratories, I make the case that gerrymandered statehouses are the most important institutions in the attack on democracy. These state legislatures are the far right’s front line—the instigator of gerrymandered Congressional districts, voter suppression and so many of the extremist laws that are turning America upside down. So focusing on these institutions is key in the battle for democracy.
And on this level, Tuesday brought major gains—in fact, I’d say the best pro-democracy statehouse progress in years.
We knew going in that there were several states where Democrats had a chance to flip previously gerrymandered statehouses from red to blue: Michigan (2 seats for both House and Senate), Arizona (2 seats for the House), and Minnesota (1 seat to flip the Senate). It was more of a long shot, but in Pennyslvania, flipping 12 seats would mean flipping that statehouse,
Well….mission accomplished. Again and again.
Both the Michigan House and Senate flipped, as did the Minnesota Senate.. Even more remarkably, Democrats flipped numerous seats in Pennsylvania and look to be on the verge of flipping one the worst gerrymandered statehouses of the past decade! (Some people have already called that outcome). We are still awaiting the counting in Arizona.
In other states, the pro-democracy goals were less dramatic, but still critical.
In Maine, Colorado, and New Mexico, the goal was to keep the majority and fend off GOP attacks. In newly gerrymandered North Carolina and Wisconsin, the goal was not to lose seats to allow veto-proof Republican gerrymanders. All that too was accomplished.
Remember, in the 2010 and 2014 mid-terms, we got throttled in these very legislatures. Lost hundreds and hundreds of seats—and majorities. Then these statehouses were gerrymandered to the hilt for the entire decade. So these gains and holds are especially impressive in that context.
DEFEATING ELECTION DENIERS
Another critical set of elections across the country involved Secretary of State races. I dedicated numerous Whiteboards to the dire risk we faced from extreme election deniers running for Secretary of State in swing states. It became clear that there was a national, well-funded, and coordinated effort to place election deniers in these offices.
Scary as hell.
Thus far, of the races that have been called, voters have rejected these election deniers in the states that we know will be the most closely contested in 2024. They lost in New Mexico, Michigan, and Minnesota. The most extreme candidate was running in Arizona, and while votes are still being counted, it looks like he’s on his way to losing. The leader of the election denier effort is in a tight race Nevada, which is currently too close to call. Fingers crossed that he loses.
Crucially, because the Pennsylvania Governor appoints the Secretary of State, Josh Shapiro’s victory kept Doug Mastriano, also an election denier, from appointing a like-minded Secretary of State. And in Wisconsin, the Governor certifies elections (as opposed to the Secretary of State), so Tony Evers’ win also keeps that decision in secure hands.
GOVERNORS
As in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Tuesday was a big night for pro-democracy Governors. All Governors veto or sign legislation impacting everything from election laws to gerrymandered maps to extremist bills, so these wins, and other wins in states like Maryland, Michigan and even Kansas, mark important victories. Again, many of these were the very governorships we lost in 2010 and 2014.
THE PEOPLE SPEAK DIRECTLY
The other big trend of the election was the success of direct democracy. In all five states where there was a direct vote on abortion rights, the people chose abortion access. That included in Kentucky and Montana!
This once again shows what a threat direct democracy poses to gerrymandered statehouses. It’s also a reminder of why the GOP works so hard to gerrymander in the first place—they know that their views are anathema to the people of their states, and can only be safely imposed in a world of unaccountable extremism.
SETBACKS
Unfortunately, along with these successes, many states suffered the continued decline in democracy that I describe in Laboratories of Autocracy, driven by the intense gerrymanders of 2021:
Tragically, in Ohio, a GOP that for two years defied our new state’s Constitution barring partisan gerrymandering (along with numerous Supreme Court orders) was rewarded for its lawlessness.
The election itself confirmed that the unconstitutional maps the GOP forced onto the ballot were as bad as feared. In a state whose constitution mandated districts approximating the 10-year average of Ohio voter preferences (54%-46%), the gerrymandered maps secured Republicans 67% (statehouse) and 79%! (state Senate) of legislative seats. Outrageous—and worse than the gerrymander of the prior decade that the Constitutional reforms were meant to correct.
Just as bad, the Ohio GOP effort to defy the Ohio Supreme Court while also changing the rules of how Ohio elects Supreme Court Justices (adding a partisan ID to the ballot) succeeded. Even though the Democratic Ohio Supreme Court Justices were the top vote-getters for Ohio’s non-federal Democratic statewide candidates, over-performing the top of the ticket by 11, 12 and 12 points, they couldn’t overcome the overall headwinds combined with the new partisan nature of the races.
Based on the new Court majority’s prior dissents and public statements, I fear Ohio will now be saddled with these illegally gerrymandered maps (the same, or perhaps worse) going forward, unless and until there is further change to the Ohio Constitution.
Overall, Ohio remains a case study of an aggressive, open attack on both democracy and the rule of law succeeding in an American state.
One bright spot: for Congress, our years of work to reform gerrymandering paid off in a short-term sense in that Ohio will have 5 members of Congress for the first time since 2009-2010. Those pick-ups were only possible due to the reforms that passed in 2018 which forbid the splitting of large city voters in a way that made Cincinnati and Akron whole for districting purposes. Those cities, no longer split, anchored the new districts that my friends Greg Landsman and Emila Sykes won through ferocious campaigns. We will have to fight hard to keep these seats intact.
As in Ohio, in many other states that are generally red—from Florida to Tennessee, Texas to Missouri, Indiana to Georgia—new gerrymanders also imposed their intended effect.
And like Ohio, adding party ID to the ballot (an ALEC tactic to ensure state courts are no longer independent) also led to a Republican takeover of the North Carolina Supreme Court, which carries major negative consequences. (Remember, the Moore v. Harper case—involving the Independent State Legislature “theory”—only arose because the prior North Carolina Supreme Court struck own a gerrymandered GOP Congressional map).
In all, despite historic progress in some states, we have so much work to do to bring functioning democracies back to so many other states. But it’s work we must do.
How?
Lessons Learned:
The successes on Tuesday were not a coincidence. They didn’t come by happenstance. Or dumb luck.
They were earned.
More than any other time in politics, I had a front-row seat to who was doing what, where—and I watched and participated in a number of efforts that I consider “best practices.” And, thank goodness, they worked in so many places.
So amid the mix of successes and failures come some critical lessons learned that I will share in my next newsletter.
Stay Tuned.
Thank you - this is the analysis I was looking for. Wonder what it will take for the NYT or Wapo to publish it - everyone needs to know about this.
An academic analysis of current politics. Many people here in Cincinnati didn’t follow the shenanigans in the statehouse. And don’t get me started on the ALEC.