Blinders On: "What Happened to Ohio?"

The Continued Failure To See the Big (Political) Picture/Crisis, EVERYWHERE

Every year or so—often after a high-profile election—come the same columns I’ve read for years: “What’s Happened To Ohio?” or “What’s Wrong With Ohio?” or “Why Is Ohio No Longer a Bellwether State?”

This past week, after Trump’s handpicked candidate won the Ohio GOP primary for Senate, such columns appeared again, including in The NY Times and NPR.

And most of these columns, usually from smart people I respect, lead me to one conclusion: I clearly have not done a good enough job distributing my book “Laboratories of Autocracy.” Let me explain:

It’s the Attack on Democracy

Because while these columns all delve into the same economic challenges and demographic shifts to scrutinize how those changes have impacted Ohio’s political outcomes, almost none of them ever mention the biggest factor by far (which I spend Laboratories explaining in detail): the intentional use of political power to undermine democracy and eliminate political accountability. That is the factor, more than any other, that has fueled the downward spiral into extremism that now dominates the state in most elections, and politics writ large.

To name the components that these analyses rarely if ever mention: the gerrymandering, the voter purging, numerous forms of voter suppression of groups that once were part of a majority coalition, the lawlessness of those in power (violating court orders multiple times to lock in still unconstitutional districts), the blatant pay-to-play corruption that gives those in power an overwhelming and constant financial and communication advantage, the rigging of rules for court elections to eliminate legal accountability, the overall lack of accountability back to the people for most statehouse officeholders (where most of the power lies), and more.

If you’re not mentioning all this, you’ve missed the story.

Why?

Because when you add them all up, the lack of accountability that results from all these political factors creates a set of brutal incentives that rewards politicians who keep moving more to the extreme (while participating in pay to play that squanders public assets), and punishes those who dare cling to any semblance of moderation.  And those more extreme voices end up dominating all the others—in their own party (just ask Portman, DeWine and others last week), and the broader electorate.

But not mentioning the political factors does more than just “miss the story.” In an unintended way, leaving the warped and rigged politics out of these accounts cleanses those in power of the egregious political sins they committed to get and stay there—and legitimizes their narrative that this is all a result of fair-play politics. When it is most clearly not.

It’s the equivalent (although not as extreme) of explaining the onset of Jim Crow in the South (even as blacks made up about 50% or more of the electorate in many of those states) as a result of x, y and z non-political variables without also mentioning the horrific voter suppression and political violence that started it all, and anchored the entire system for generations.

Or describing Orban’s maintenance of power in Hungary without detailing all he’s done to undermine democracy there (steps which the extreme politicians in our country are studying every day).

It’s So Much Bigger than Ohio

Even worse, this failure to grapple with the political reality is so much bigger than Ohio.

The truth is, what’s happening in Ohio is the same thing that’s happening in Missouri, Tennessee, Iowa, Indiana, Florida, Texas, North Carolina and so many other states. These states may have a wide variety of demographic, climate and economic factors taking place. But in all of them, the same aggressive and permanent undermining of democracy and elimination of all accountability has become the political status quo.

As in Ohio, the common dominator will be a corrupted form of politics that combines intense gerrymandering, huge numbers of uncontested races, voter suppression that changes the electorate (and targets minority voters who, in some states, were once a crucial part of the majority coalition that turned these state blue), lawlessness when necessary to keep power, rampant corruption and pay-to-play which funds those in power and keeps those who profit invested in the broken system, and an overall lack of accountability for those in power back to the people.

As in Ohio, these factors together create a reward system for extremism, and punish any semblance of moderation or mainstream politics. Which explains the trajectory of Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Tennessee and others who all were blue in one way or another not that long ago. But now are unrecognizable politically. 

It’s truly a downward spiral, fueled by the same broken politics, corruption, and the lack of viable, healthy democracy and accountability.

Federal Blinders: If It’s Not a So-Called “Bellwether,” We Ignore It

So, the failure to see how broken democracy drives so much of Ohio’s downward trajectory is part of the broader failure to see how shattered democracy is driving the same direction in countless states.

Even worse, most of these states’ existence as non-democracies mired in extremism often don’t even merit stories like those attempting to analyze “what happened to Ohio?”

Why not? Because they were never considered bellwethers for federal elections in the first place (even though many voted for Obama or Clinton or Democratic governors or senators).

And that reveals our other blind spot—that we still view American politics too much through the partisan lens of “swing states” that impact federal elections, and not as a matter of the health of democracy itself in all states, for all Americans. And because these other states aren’t, or weren't recently, a “swing state,” (ie. like Ohio) we don’t even talk about what’s happening in them as the crisis that it clearly is.

Isn’t something deeply wrong when it’s hardly considered a story that so many states no longer resemble viable, rule of law, representative democracies? I think so, as do millions of Americans enduring that non-democratic extremism.

Again, using my Jim Crow analogy: it’d be like writing stories in 1900 about Jim Crow taking over Mississippi (scratching our heads as to why without mentioning voter suppression and violence), and then failing to mention that the exact same circumstances existed in Alabama, Louisiana and South Carolina, due to the very same tools of suppression and violence being used in Mississippi.

That would completely miss the story of Jim Crow, wouldn’t it? Of course.

The Cost of Not Seeing It: Lack of Urgency on the Need for Political Reform

There’s a major cost to not seeing that broken politics is driving all these states’ trajectories toward extremism: it blinds us to the reality that deep and bold political reform to restore democracy is the most crucial solution Americans must pursue, in these states and federally. (You’d never reach that conclusion from the “What’s Wrong with Ohio?” columns).

Which is why the hard work we’re doing in Ohio this year to end gerrymandering (#citizensnotpoliticians) and run candidates in far more districts are so crucial. These and other political reforms are the key foundational steps to setting a better course.

It’s why the Wisconsin Supreme Court win in 2023, followed by the striking down of gerrymandering there, gives new hope to a state mired in the wrong direction for a generation.

And it’s how Michigan and Pennsylvania clawed themselves back from the same perilous paths. They provide case studies that bringing a healthy democracy and accountability back dramatically changes political behavior.

Finally, it’s the reason that by far the most important legislation in Washington are the two voting rights bills that would protect democracy and end gerrymandering back in all these broken states.

Ironically, seeing the blind spots in the “What Happened to Ohio?” columns should motivate us all to fight harder for democracy everywhere!

To get a copy of “Laboratories of Autocracy,” which walks through all this in far more detail (ebook is only $3.99), go HERE.