Day 118 — March 30, 2025
Yesterday, as he’s done before, Trump floated the idea of serving a third term.
Here’s the problem—for him at least.
He won’t serve a third term:
There is no viable legal path or argument for a third term.
And there is no feasible path for him to change that.
BUT…Trump talking about it is politically significant.
A quick summary of the law and the politics:
The 22nd Amendment:
Section 1: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
Because Trump has been elected twice, that would seem to settle it.
And, note that there is no opening in this language that the limit only applies to two consecutive terms, which some on the the right throw out there.
So the fact that Trump was elected twice, but not consecutively, does not alter the hard limit on two total terms.
Can He Serve a Third Term without Being Elected?
Some jokers try to argue that the 22nd Amendment has a loophole—that because it uses the word “elected” and not “served,” that somehow Trump can still “serve” a third term even if not elected a third time.
How would he pull that off?
It would be a Putin-style maneuver. Remember, back when he cared about optics, Putin became prime minister after being president to get around term limits there.
Here, the argument is that Trump could be elected or appointed Vice President in 2028 or after, then whoever the president was would resign, and Trump could fill that vacancy. Hence—he could serve a third presidential term, even though not “elected” to a third term.
But there are two problems with that.
First, it clearly violates the spirit of the Constitution. But the current Court likely could care less about that.
Second, it violates another clause in the Constitution.
Which clause?
The one defining who is eligible to run for Vice President: the 12th Amendment, which says: “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President.”
Since Trump is ineligible to be President, he’s ineligible to be Vice President—and that would seem to take the Vice President-to-be-appointed President path off the table. Sure, someone may try—but the twisting of words and meanings and clear intent to get around all this would be too much for even John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett to go for. (Famous last words, I know—but here, I actually believe them).
Add it all up, and as famed professor Laurence Tribe once said, the chances of this VP argument succeeding are “[l]ess than the likelihood of an asteroid hitting Singapore tomorrow morning.” (Note: an asteroid did not hit Singapore the following morning, or any other morning since).
Constitutional Amendment?
Even staunch Trump allies appear to agree with this take, which is why they float the back-up plan: a Constitutioaln Amendment. Pam Bondi, for example, said at her confirmation hearing that an Amendment is required.
And right-winger Rep. Andy Ogles has proposed a Constitutional Amendment to remake the current limit as follows: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than three times, nor be elected to any additional term after being elected to two consecutive terms."
(Note this wording would allow Trump to run again, but the latter clause would keep Obama from being able to do so.)
Still, this Amendment would require a vote of two-thirds of the members of both the House and Senate, as well as ratification from three-fourths of the states.
And the divisions in our country—and Trump’s always anemic popularity—will keep that from happening.
The Point: Loyalty and Discipline
So what’s really going on if the path to three terms seems non-viable?
To me, the answer is very clear.
Being a lame duck puts Trump in a terribly weak position from the outset.
Trump knows full well that without the threat of another term, his power and sway could fade very quickly—especially as his poll numbers tank. And this is not just with respect to Democrats or the country writ large, but is especially the case within his own party.
And as a personal matter, I guarantee you nothing irks Trump more than the talk of other Republicans even thinking about being president after him—let alone taking early steps to get ahead in that competition.
So, even dangling out the prospects of a third term complicates things for 1) those who might move too aggressively with an eye on 2028 (no doubt that’s already happening on the inside of GOP circles), and 2) anyone tempted to break with him thinking he won’t be relevant much longer.
(In this context, since Musk can’t run for president, his getting attention doesn’t threaten Trump as much.)
And remember, this all comes after Trump has experienced a decade of GOPers embracing nearly every one of his outrageous and lawless positions. That the 2020 election was stolen. That ending birthright citizenship is constitutional. Thinking he can gut voting rights via an executive order. Canada and Greenland and the lawless deportations under the Alien Enemies Act (as if we’re at war with Venezuela). He’s even gotten them to call to impeach judges who dare to stand with the Constitution against his lawless acts.
Because he’s seen all that, just as we have, he knows the GOP lemmings are dumb enough to parrot his third term nonsense. And since the battle in the GOP is over who is most loyal to Trump, he knows (and he’s right) that once a bunch start to talk that way, no one will be brave enough to say otherwise—including people like JD Vance, who would otherwise be ramping up for 2028.
My guess is, he is already pressuring other Republicans to echo his calls for a third term. And we know that that is exactly what many of them will do (as others try to duck the issue entirely).
And the louder the talk grows among Republicans that they support a third term (and start to echo ridiculous arguments as to why it’s Constitutional, when it clearly isn’t), the more that echo chamber will keep 2028 suitors from daring to come forward.
And all this maximizes Trump’s lock on power and a compliant GOP for as long as possible, even if there still is no viable legal path to get that third term.
Bottom Line:
For his self-serving political purposes, expect Trump to keep bringing a third term up—especially as he and his priorities continue to tank in the polls.
Think of it as a leash he can use to control the Republican Party. Every time he feels his lame duck status growing, he can yank that leash hard to re-assert his power and freeze any other Republicans from emerging.
And yes, expect GOP politicians to yelp in assent.
Most Republicans will publicly agree with him.
And to be clear, what he will demand of them is not to support Ogles’ amendment (because he knows it won’t pass). He needs them to say an Amendment isn’t needed. And far too many will.
BUT, despite it all….be clear, there is no viable exception to the 22nd Amendment. Even this Supreme Court will have a nearly impossible time getting around that.
A new Amendment is needed, and will not happen.
This is one of many examples where Trump is happy to torch the GOP and future candidates in order to maximize his own short-term grip on power.
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