As a kid, I’d brag that I went to first grade three different times and never flunked. Moving a lot between countries does that.
Growing up, because of my dad’s job, we were an international family. While Cincinnati was always our home base, we moved every few years.
I lived in Rome between the ages of 3 to 6.
Brussels at age 7.
Back to Cincinnati for some years.
Back to Brussels for grades 5 through 7.
Then back to Cincinnati for 8th grade and high school.
Beyond where we actually lived, we traveled a ton over these years. Before the end of the Cold War, our travels were largely confined to Western Europe. After, the entire world. I did international work in Russia after college, and ventured to all sorts of other destinations along the way.
It was a unique way to grow up. If at times challenging (picking up and leaving places and friends and schools we grew to love), it was a true blessing I appreciate more now.
My parents especially have maintained many friendships and relationships throughout the world. I have to a lesser degree.
And from those friendships, we hear perspectives all the time about what’s happening in the world—and how the actions of the United States appear through the eyes of other nations. From this, I’ve learned that observing the US through foreign eyes can often provide a clearer picture than our own, up-close view. (This was the method I used to write my first book).
This is all a long way of introducing a perspective we recently received from a friend in Ukraine.
You will want to read it:
“You often ask about “how it feels in Ukraine” so I thought you may be interested to look through “the current thoughts in Ukraine.” I pick for you a long detailed summary from the school of thought I belong to, and trying to avoid emotions…
The only bit I’ll describe more emotionally is around your president’s “campaign” against Zelensky. Even those who are in direct violent opposition, criticizing Zelensky in Ukraine, say something like “though I blame him for a lot and have very little trust and respect to him, it is up to Ukrainians to decide when and how to change our government—I’ll now back Zelensky as never before so that no external force dictates to my people again.”
This friend then forwarded a translated Facebook post from a respected Ukraine reformer and analyst (his name is Valerii Pekar) trying to explain what Ukrainians should expect and do amid the “new reality” of the US in Trump’s hands.
It was posted on Feb. 20:
The New Reality
New reality. Brief description.
It took a week to put together a picture of all the trash that swirled around us. Finally, we did. This text should be supplemented with important details that will become known later, but I'm publishing it quickly so that we can get acquainted with the new reality. But first of all, pour yourself some tea so that you have enough strength to read to the end.
1.
So, the old world order has come to an end. The old world order, based on rules, agreements and values, no longer exists. It was never perfect, but it existed. Now it no longer exists.
The reasons for the destruction of the world order should be described in a separate article, here I will only briefly note that developed countries benefited from the world order, and developing countries (those that are developing and catching up or at least pretending to) tried to destroy it, because it is unprofitable. At some point, developing countries (primarily China) began to catch up with developed ones, and the most powerful developed country, the USA, decided that it was time to move from protecting the old order to destroying it. That is why the American people elected Trump, who became the exponent of this idea. This is not a coincidence, but the embodiment of a trend (like everything else in the world). Previously, on one side they would tear down the supporting structure, on the other they would support and repair it; now the structure is being destroyed from both sides, and it will go much faster.
In this “new world without order”, the USA will not protect its European or Asian allies. In this world, there are now no alliances and allies, no mutual obligations, and old treaties can be revised unilaterally. There are only big strong countries that take what they want, and small weak ones that become victims of such policies. At least, this is how the new American administration sees the world. They are not isolationists—they are expansionists, and we should not be surprised by the demands for Greenland, Canada or Panama now.
Obviously, the current American administration is not monolithic. It consists of many groups with quite different values and interests, but for now I will mention only the two most important ones. Let us call them America First and the techno-oligarchs (it would be more correct to call them techno-fascists, using this word not as an insult, but to denote their ideology). America First dreams of destroying the world order, but strengthening the American state so that America dominates the world. The techno-oligarchs dream of destroying the world order, including the American state, so that their techno-corporations dominate the world.
The strategy of the first group is described in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. The strategy of the techno-oligarchs is formed by Musk, Thiel, Sachs and other representatives of this cohort. These two groups have opposing views on taxation, intelligence agencies, migrants (techno-oligarchs need talent from all over the world, America First against migrants) and other issues, so sooner or later they will quarrel. But for now they are united in their desire to destroy what was as quickly as possible. “We will destroy the whole world of violence, uproot it, and then…” – we have already heard it somewhere.
The New America does not want to be a global policeman and monitor order in the world. It will not defend democracy, spread education, develop institutions, etc. – it only needs your assets from you (previously only China did this). The New America does not believe in alliances and agreements, it believes in the right of the strong in a multipolar world. If you are strong, do what you want. If you are weak, give away “clothes, boots and a motorcycle”, as the Terminator said. This is neocolonialism, whether in economic or in force format. The new America does not believe in multilateralism, that is, it does not need international institutions, so it is not excluded that in the near future the USA will withdraw from NATO (if not formally, then in fact), the World Trade Organization, and maybe even the UN. Musk will explain this by the need to save American funds from being wasted; Trump - by the inoperability of institutions (and he will be right, but instead of repairing he will propose to demolish everything to zero), Project 2025 - by the fact that if the USA needs to provide assistance to someone, they can do it directly, "without unnecessary bureaucrats".
2.
What does the new American policy mean for Europe? The security contract with Europe, "Pax Americana", has ended. Europe as a center of power is disadvantageous for America: now it is not an ally (because there are no allies), but an alternative center of power—and the fewer centers of power, the better. And here America's goals coincide with those of Russia and China: to separate Europe from America, to break up the European Union and to have Europe weak, disunited and powerless in the form of separate unprotected markets and an object of plunder. A kind of clumsy seal that can be bitten from all sides.
It is still unclear how the American administration sees the zone of influence in Europe: will it be plundered from both sides together, will Western Europe be a zone of exclusive American interests, and Eastern Europe— Russia's (as was the case during the Cold War), what will happen with the encroachments of China (which is already buying up Europe piece by piece), etc. But the main thing is that they need to collapse the European Union, divide it to push everyone, and to do this they openly support Eurosceptics from the far right (and Russia also from the far left) end of the political spectrum. If strong individual leaders emerge from the ruins of Europe, the US will cooperate with them. So far, they do not see any in France, Germany, or Britain.
3.
What does the new American policy mean for Russia?
America sees China as its greatest adversary. And here we have what I call the greatest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: the Americans’ belief in the possibility of tearing Russia away from China and turning it in the opposite direction – against China. In our opinion, this is impossible to do. But, as we know, each American administration at the beginning sought to “reset” relations with Russia, mistakenly considering it part of Western civilization. None of these “resets” ended well, but that was later.
In such a situation, the main fear of the American administration is the collapse of the Russian regime. This must not be allowed at all costs. Two years ago, I wrote that the fear of Russia's defeat is so much greater than the fear of Ukraine's defeat (without which the world has lived perfectly well for hundreds of years) that a moment may come when, instead of supporting Ukraine against Russia, America will start supporting Russia against Ukraine. It is unpleasant, but this day has come.
In the first month of his term, Trump has brought Russia out of international isolation, and instead of an aggressor and international terrorist, he has presented it as a powerful country that has the right to its place at the table of great powers. It is possible that sanctions will soon be lifted.
Imagine that in the midst of World War II, instead of helping Britain fight the Nazi Reich, instead of Lend-Lease for the USSR, the US president would send negotiators to meet with Hitler's representatives, call Adolf his best friend, prepare a personal meeting and explain to everyone that Czechoslovakia, Poland, France are to blame for the war, and with our friend Adolf we will somehow come to an agreement.
4.
What does the new American policy mean for Ukraine? First, there will be no more support for Ukraine. Back in the fall, Ukrainian analysts explained that there will be no support from the US regardless of the results of the presidential elections.
Sometimes it seems to us that someone in the American administration hates Ukraine, and someone loves it. This is a childish approach: a child thinks that he is in the spotlight, and everyone around him treats him in a certain way, good or bad. An adult knows that the world is mostly indifferent to you. The world is not Ukraine-centric. In their understanding, Ukraine is neither good nor bad—it is simply irrelevant, that is, it has no bearing on the matter.
Ukraine prevents the current America from doing two things. First, to weaken Europe so that it is defenseless. Second, to strengthen Russia in order to use it against China. So Ukraine must be punished—nothing personal, just business.
A metaphor currently popular among the new American administration compares the current war to the American Civil War. Ukraine looks like a rebellious southern province. The good northerners will eventually defeat the bad southerners and restore order. And foreign states (the USA, Europe) should not get involved in someone else's civil war.
5.
What should we do in this situation?
First, stop thinking that we can somehow “sell” ourselves to the new American administration. For them, we are an annoying obstacle in the implementation of their plans. We have nothing to offer them.
How can America put pressure on Ukraine? It is unlikely that by stopping aid, because aid will stop anyway. Certain aspects of this stoppage will be painful for us, very painful, much more than the dismantling of USAID. But I see no way to keep this aid.
Secondly, it is time to understand that our main ally is Europe. I wrote about this a few months ago. Europe will not survive without Ukraine. Ukraine will not survive without Europe. We are in the same boat, we will either swim together or sink together. It would be nice if Europe understood this as quickly as we do.
Europe needs Ukraine as a shield. We have the largest army on the continent. We are the only ones with an army that knows how to contain Russia. We are the only ones with an army that knows how to wage modern high-tech warfare.
Ukraine needs Europe as a rear. As a source of financial assistance, weapons, technology, investments, political and moral support. We are destined to be together.
Will Europe wake up soon? Ukraine paid with the blood of its best sons and daughters for three years of wasted European awakening. We helped Europe buy time to prepare, but they did not use it. Only now, under the influence of the obvious destruction of alliances and promises, is the awakening beginning. We told Europe that we were defending it, but they did not believe it until the new reality made it obvious.
Will Europe finally consolidate or become paralyzed? Different analysts assess the likelihood of these two scenarios differently. We do not know how the elections in Germany will end and how stable the new government coalition will be. France also has domestic political problems with a potential turn to the extreme right end of the political spectrum in the next elections. But at least the United Kingdom, the Nordic-Baltic Eight, the Netherlands, Poland and the Czech Republic will be with us. I will say something special about Poland: despite everything, we cannot survive in the world we have today without each other.
It is possible that as a result of American and Russian attacks on European unity, the European Union will cease to exist. Sometimes it will seem that Russia has outdone everyone. But at the same time, such a potential defeat could provide an impetus for the formation of a new union - a security one, not an economic one. Ukraine will play an important role in this union, because it is impossible without us. It is possible that Intermarium (Intermyria) will turn from an unrealistic political project into a reality.
By the way, we need to accelerate European integration as much as possible, despite the fact that we may find ourselves in a situation where the EU will already cease to exist. The further we move along this path, the more important our role will be and the better the conditions in the new union will be.
Thirdly, it is worth looking for allies outside the US and the European Union, and here it is worth mentioning Turkey first of all. Those who look at the world with a childish eye count as our enemies everyone who did not sign our documents, did not speak out clearly enough, once did something in their favor that we did not like. But this way you can end up in a world where everyone around is considered an enemy. The world does not revolve around Ukraine, each country cares first of all about itself. And we need to care first of all about ourselves and look for allies in this matter.
6.
Since Russia cannot overwhelm Ukraine by military means, it will do it politically. The idea of elections during wartime, that is, before the signing of a peace agreement with security guarantees, will be devastating for Ukraine (even the signing of such an agreement is not yet peace, it comes only with the beginning of its actual implementation). The USA and Russia are now uniting in promoting this idea of “first elections, then peace”—this is the best way to quickly and inexpensively overthrow Ukraine. I have written about the elections dozens of times and will write more.
I will note that the loss of Ukrainian statehood, which will come after this, does not guarantee survival for Ukrainians (the experience of the 20th century, Bucha, Mariupol and other temporarily occupied territories will help to understand this). Russia will mobilize everyone without delay and reservations and throw them into the next wave of imperial expansion—into defenseless Europe. And there will be nowhere to hide—you can escape to Poland, but the war will come there for you.
By the way, it is no secret that Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize. He is sure that a ceasefire is enough for this. We know that this is not the case. But even if a peace agreement is concluded, a Nobel Prize is awarded, and the peace agreement is then violated, for Trump it will mean only one thing - that we ourselves are to blame, and he is the greatest peacemaker of our time. He brought us peace, and we rejected it.
7.
What should we do?
First, understand that we have a crisis that threatens the loss of statehood and the lives of many of us. The political elites must immediately stop political strife and persecution, bad decisions and cabinet management, as well as preparations for elections (which will not happen if we do not survive). A hundred years ago, it was precisely such strife that led to disaster. The political elites must come together to the people with a call for unity and solidarity in the face of the threat of losing everything. They say that Ukrainians usually unite only 5 minutes before being shot, so we have the last chance to change this false tradition.
Secondly, to take a subjective position. Ukraine will not agree to any conditions that do not ensure the survival of the country and its citizens. We are not obliged to be a victim. Do not be offended or react to verbal attacks, but express your interests and your position coldly and in an adult way.
Improving management in the Armed Forces and in the rear, in the economy, military-industrial complex, energy and other areas becomes a matter of survival.
There is no immediate catastrophe yet. We have resources for this year and we must use this time as effectively as possible to awaken and gather allies in order to secure resources for the next and subsequent years. The main efforts should be focused on Europe.
What should each and every one of us do?
— Realize the scale of the problem and the impossibility of hiding from it. Either you are in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Join the victory either by service, or with your own money and volunteering.
— Put your head in order and keep it cool, do not be led by Russian propaganda, do not spread it. If you cannot work for victory - at least do not work for defeat. The level of information attacks will increase many times in the near future.
— Help those who are more difficult. Support each other. We are a network society of free people, and this is the key to our stability.
“I would like this not to happen in my time,” said Frodo. “Me too,” said Gandalf, “and everyone who lives in such a time. But it is not for them to decide. We can only decide what to do with the time given to us.”
Day 80 — February 19, 2025
Best estimates are now that around 200,000 federal workers have lost their jobs due to DOGE and Trump. An estimated 75,000 more have accepted buyouts.
According to ABC News, these terminations include workers in the following departments and agencies:
Department of Education
Department of Homeland Security (half from FEMA, as floods ravage Appalachia, and a large chunk from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA))
Department of Energy (including the National Nuclear Security Administration)
U.S. AID — more than 10,000 placed on leave
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Department of Veterans Affairs — more than 1,000 lost their jobs
Department of Agriculture (USDA), including to the U.S. Forest Service
Environmental Protection Agency
Department of Health and Human Services—including NIH, the FDA, and the CDC
Department of the Interior — with a large number coming from the Bureau of Land Management
The Small Business Administration
internal agencies, such as the Office of Personnel Management and General Services Administration
I live in the midwest, which on the surface feels far away from this DC decisionaking.
But even here, I see and hear the dominoes falling all around me. Here’s what I tweeted yesterday:
“A veteran friend learned today that his primary care appointment at the VA tomorrow is canceled because his long-time doctor, also a veteran, is suddenly gone.
During a zoom the other day, a woman got the news (during the call!) that her brilliant daughter had lost her science job.
A fiancé of a family friend was still in his probationary period. Gone!
An aid worker overseas told me he’s trying to explain to his kids what’s happening amid chaos and confusion. He doesn’t have any idea what will happen, both now, and if/when he returns.
Another friend who works as a VA researcher worries her job will end when her term appointment expires, even if she doesn’t lose her job sooner via DOGE.
These are just a few stories in my small personal circle.
Careers destroyed.
Lives turned upside down.
Public service, undermined.”
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